Semiconductor Inventory Adjustment Nearing End: Analysis of Market Recovery Momentum in Second Half of 2026
In the first half of 2026, the global semiconductor industry has undergone an inventory adjustment period lasting nearly two years. As supply-demand relationships gradually balance, the market is expected to experience significant recovery in the second half. This article will provide an in-depth analysis of the current semiconductor inventory adjustment status, analyze market recovery momentum, reveal new opportunities in Thailand's semiconductor industry, and offer investors market trends and strategic guidance for the second half of the year.
Inventory Adjustment Status: Clouds Dispersing, Dawn Emerging
According to the latest data from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SEMI), global semiconductor inventory levels in the second quarter of 2026 have fallen near the historical average, a decrease of approximately 35% from the peak in 2024. This marks the end of the nearly two-year inventory adjustment cycle, as the industry gradually enters a new equilibrium phase.
During the inventory adjustment process, various semiconductor products have shown different adjustment rhythms. Logic chips and microcontrollers (MCUs) have restored inventory balance first, while memory chips and high-end processors are still in the final stages of adjustment. This differentiated adjustment reflects different recovery speeds in various application fields, providing investors with a reference for accurately grasping market rhythms.
Deep-Reasons Behind Inventory Adjustment
This semiconductor inventory adjustment mainly stems from three factors: first, excessive inventory replenishment after the 2022-2023 pandemic led to a large backlog of inventory in the supply chain; second, slowing global economic growth weakened demand in consumer electronics and industrial sectors; third, supply chain restructuring due to geopolitical factors also increased inventory management difficulties.
Notably, inventory adjustment is not simply a surplus of supply but an inevitable process of market self-adjustment. This process has prompted semiconductor companies to optimize capacity allocation and enhance supply chain flexibility, laying the foundation for the next growth cycle. As a Southeast Asian semiconductor manufacturing center, Thailand has demonstrated strong adaptability during this adjustment, with its packaging and testing capacity utilization率先恢复 to over 90%, showing the competitive advantage of its industrial chain.
Market Recovery Drivers: AI and Automotive Semiconductors as Dual Engines
As inventory adjustment approaches its end, the momentum for market recovery is becoming increasingly evident. According to the latest forecast from WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics), the global semiconductor market will achieve 8.5% growth in the second half of 2026, with artificial intelligence (AI) and automotive semiconductors becoming the main driving forces.
Continued Explosion in AI Computing Demand
The rapid adoption of AI applications has driven demand growth for high-performance computing chips. According to market research data, the global AI server market size is expected to reach $120 billion in 2026, with an annual growth rate exceeding 40%. This strong demand has directly boosted demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced process chips, pushing up prices for related products.
With its advanced packaging and testing capabilities, Thailand's semiconductor industry has become an important part of the global AI chip supply chain. Several international giants are expanding their advanced packaging and testing capacity in Thailand to meet the technical requirements of AI applications for high-density packaging. This not only enhances Thailand's position in the semiconductor industry chain but also brings more technology transfer and industrial upgrading opportunities to the region.
Steady Growth in Automotive Semiconductor Demand
The rapid adoption of electric vehicles and smart cars has driven continuous growth in automotive semiconductor demand. According to statistics, the global automotive semiconductor market size will reach $75 billion in 2026, with an annual growth rate of about 15%. As a Southeast Asian automotive manufacturing center, Thailand is playing an increasingly important role in the automotive semiconductor supply chain.
The uniqueness of automotive semiconductors lies in their high reliability requirements, which make the supply chain relatively stable with smaller inventory adjustments. Meanwhile, as the degree of automotive electronics continues to increase, the semiconductor value per vehicle continues to rise, bringing stable growth momentum to related companies. Leveraging its automotive industry foundation, Thailand is actively developing an automotive semiconductor ecosystem, attracting related companies to invest and establish operations.
Unique Opportunities in Thailand's Semiconductor Industry
Against the backdrop of global semiconductor inventory adjustment, Thailand's semiconductor industry is embracing new development opportunities. The Thai government has launched a semiconductor investment plan worth hundreds of billions of baht through the BOI (Board of Investment), focusing on supporting the development of advanced packaging and testing and wide-bandgap semiconductors (SiC, GaN).
Expansion of Advanced Packaging and Testing Capacity
Leveraging its mature packaging and testing industry foundation and favorable policies, Thailand has become one of the preferred regions for global advanced packaging and testing capacity expansion. Several international packaging and testing leaders are expanding their capacity in Thailand to meet the growing demand for AI chips and automotive semiconductors. According to statistics, Thailand's packaging and testing capacity utilization reached 92% in the first half of 2026, an increase of 15 percentage points from the same period last year.
The development of advanced packaging and testing technology has not only enhanced Thailand's position in the semiconductor industry chain but has also driven the development of related supporting industries. The industrial chain, including packaging materials and testing equipment, is accelerating its concentration, forming a good industrial ecosystem. This has laid a solid foundation for the long-term development of Thailand's semiconductor industry.
Rise of Wide-Bandgap Semiconductors
Against the backdrop of rapid development in new energy and electric vehicles, wide-bandgap semiconductors (SiC, GaN) have become emerging growth points in the semiconductor industry. The Thai government has listed wide-bandgap semiconductors as a strategic development area, attracting related companies to invest through tax incentives, R&D subsidies, and other measures.
Thailand has unique advantages in developing wide-bandgap semiconductors: on one hand, Thailand has abundant rare earth resources, providing raw material security for SiC material production; on the other hand, Thailand's strong automotive foundation provides a broad market for wide-bandgap semiconductor applications. Several international companies have announced investments in SiC and GaN capacity in Thailand, which is expected to drive the rapid development of related industrial chains.
Market Trends and Investment Strategies for the Second Half
As inventory adjustment approaches its end, the semiconductor market in the second half of 2026 will show the following trends: first, AI and automotive semiconductors will continue to lead market growth; second, memory chips will experience a price rebound, with DRAM prices expected to increase by 5-8% in the third quarter; third, Southeast Asian countries like Thailand will become key areas for global semiconductor capacity expansion.
Investment Strategy Recommendations
For investments in the semiconductor industry, we recommend the following strategies: first, focus on companies related to AI and automotive semiconductors to seize demand growth opportunities; second, pay attention to semiconductor industry chain opportunities in Southeast Asian countries like Thailand, especially in advanced packaging and testing and wide-bandgap semiconductors; third, select companies whose inventory adjustment has basically ended and capacity utilization has recovered for investment.
Specifically for investment targets, we recommend focusing on the following directions: first, AI chip design companies with technical advantages; second, leading companies in the automotive semiconductor field; third, advanced packaging and testing companies supported by Thailand's BOI policies; fourth, wide-bandgap semiconductor material and equipment suppliers. These areas not only have growth potential but also have strong supply chain security in the context of geopolitical factors.
Risk Warnings
Although semiconductor inventory adjustment is nearing its end and market recovery is expected, investors should still pay attention to the following risks: first, uncertainty in global economic growth may affect consumer electronics demand; second, geopolitical tensions may disrupt semiconductor supply chains; third, accelerating technological innovation may increase the risk of some products becoming obsolete.
To address these risks, investors are advised to adopt a diversified investment strategy, focusing on semiconductor companies in different application areas and regions to reduce single-point risks. At the same time, closely follow technological development trends and select companies with continuous innovation capabilities for long-term investment.
Conclusion: New Cycle Begins, Thailand's Semiconductor Industry Enters Golden Development Period
The approaching end of semiconductor inventory adjustment marks the beginning of a new industry cycle. Driven by the dual engines of AI and automotive semiconductors, the global semiconductor market will usher in a new round of growth. Leveraging its industrial foundation and policy support, Thailand is becoming an important hub in the global semiconductor industry chain, bringing abundant opportunities to investors.
For investors, grasping the rhythm of inventory adjustment, focusing on high-growth areas, and selecting companies with competitive advantages are key to capturing the growth dividends of the semiconductor industry. At the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to risk factors, adopt appropriate investment strategies, and achieve stable returns in a complex and changing market environment.
Looking ahead, with technological advancement and application expansion, the semiconductor industry will continue to maintain a growth trend. Thailand's semiconductor industry, with its unique advantages, is expected to play a more important role in the global semiconductor landscape, creating greater value for investors.
